Sweet SptPROPS
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NBA player props

Back your bets with history.

A one-of-a-kind player prop analysis tool, backed by tens of thousands of deep-researched prop bets.

Try it for $3.95(24 hour pass - All Features)
props replayed and graded
seasons replayed, 2022–26
signals checked on every prop
hit rate for picks graded 90+, in testing

The idea

We wanted to know if anything about a player, a team or a game could tell you a prop was more likely to hit. Not one thing at a time. Together.

We found 54 signals worth tracking. Some are common. Some are odd. Alone, each one barely moves the needle.

So we stacked them. 1,041,528 combinations, tested against 63,154 real props. Only 395 held up.

Every night, every prop on the slate is checked against them and graded 0–99. The best picks go to the top of the board.

The result
59.1%hit rate on picks graded 90+,
on seasons the model never saw
80.5%hit rate on live picks at 67%+,
7,895 picks
52.4%is break-even
at standard −110 odds

Real results

Slips that cashed.

Real combos and parlays. Research backed on real historical signals.

Paid 3.7×Real Kalshi 7-leg NBA combo, closed. Return +265.67%. Position ID and dollar amounts blurred.
Paid 7.2×Real Kalshi 3-leg NBA combo, closed. Return +619.59%. Position ID and dollar amounts blurred.
Paid 4.0×Real Kalshi 2-leg NBA combo, closed. Return +301.16%. Position ID and dollar amounts blurred.
Paid 8.7×Real Kalshi 6-leg NBA combo, closed. Return +771.51%. Position ID and dollar amounts blurred.
Paid 3.3×Real Kalshi 5-leg NBA combo, closed. Return +230.74%. Position ID and dollar amounts blurred.
Paid 4.6×Real Kalshi 3-leg NBA combo, closed. Return +363.69%. Position ID and dollar amounts blurred.
Paid 9.1×Real Kalshi 4-leg NBA combo, closed. Return +805.66%. Position ID and dollar amounts blurred.
Paid 3.1×Real Kalshi 3-leg NBA combo, closed. Return +210.67%. Position ID and dollar amounts blurred.
Paid 2.3×Real Kalshi 3-leg NBA combo, closed. Return +128.28%. Position ID and dollar amounts blurred.
Paid 6.3×Real Kalshi 4-leg NBA combo, closed. Return +531.17%. Position ID and dollar amounts blurred.
Paid 2.5×Real Kalshi 3-leg NBA combo, closed. Return +147.14%. Position ID and dollar amounts blurred.
Paid 1.4×Real Kalshi 4-leg NBA combo, closed. Return +43.90%. Position ID and dollar amounts blurred.
Paid 2.8×Real Kalshi 3-leg NBA combo, closed. Return +184.40%. Position ID and dollar amounts blurred.
Paid 1.9×Real Kalshi 2-leg NBA combo, closed. Return +89.94%. Position ID and dollar amounts blurred.
Paid 1.6×Real Kalshi 3-leg NBA combo, closed. Return +60.33%. Position ID and dollar amounts blurred.
Try it for $3.95(24 hour pass - All Features)

How it works

Same prop.
Different question.

Most bettors ask if a player feels hot. We ask what happened the last time everything about tonight lined up the same way.

  1. 01Check 54 signals on every prop: player traits and game circumstances.
  2. 02Match tonight to history: 1,041,528 stacks tested on 63,154 past props.
  3. 03Rank the board. Every prop graded 0–99, the best picks of the night on top.

Sample prop: real player, made-up line. The hit rates are real, from 63,154 replayed props, 2022–26.

Live in-game

Changing the way
you live bet.

Once the ball goes up, Sweet Spot re-grades every live prop with the score, the clock, the minutes and the pace. When it says 67% or better, here’s how it’s done:

80.5%of 7,895 live picks hit, on a season the model never saw, at real live lines.
85%at the end of the 3rd quarter
91%midway through the 4th
82%rebounds
81%unders

All the info you need,
live and in one place.

1The bet

Over 21.5 points, priced live on Kalshi. Every prop on the slate gets re-graded on every play, not just at tip-off.

Priced live on Kalshi. Re-graded every play.

3Minutes played and left

Minutes drive the math. What he’s likely to play follows his share tonight, the score, foul trouble and the clock.

His share tonight, the score, fouls and the clock.

4The signals

The same confluences behind every pregame grade, tested on 63,154 past props, plus live signals as the game unfolds.

Confluences tested on 63,154 past props.

2Projected finish

Our own projection, not a straight per-minute pace. Hot and cold starts mostly even out, so his rate leans on his last 20 games. Built and checked on 477,000 moments from three seasons of games.

Our own model, built on 477,000 game moments.

5Likely hit

His chance to cash, next to Kalshi’s price. When it’s 67% or better, live picks have hit 80.5% of 7,895 on a season the model never saw.

67%+ live picks hit 80.5% of 7,895.

SWEET SPOT
Jamal MurrayDEN · G · 3rd 4:123rd 0:484th 8:404th 6:05
On courtDEN 74–78DEN 81–83DEN 88–86DEN 94–90
MIN27303335PTS13161921REB3445AST55673PM2233PF2
OVER · KALSHI YES22+ PTS
On pace for21.923.424.625.20.41.93.13.7 over 22+
Now 13161921Line 21.5
Played27303335min
Left~12~9~6~4min
Likely hit62%71%80%88%
Kalshi price55¢63¢72¢81¢
7¢ under our chance8¢ under our chance8¢ under our chance7¢ under our chance

Why: On pace over · star out · rebounder out

Nothing against him
Try it for $3.95(24 hour pass - All Features)

Based on real historical prop bets and signals.

Tracker

Before you bet.
After you bet.

Upload a photo of your slip or add players to a slip from The Board and monitor every pick in real time. Get a grade on every pick and parlay, with feedback on how to make it a stronger play

BeforeRate a slip
  • Every leg graded against tonight’s board
  • Is the payout worth the risk?
  • A better pick for any weak leg
C

Fair slip

1 of 2 legs are graded 80+ on tonight’s board. 1 leg is below break-even; better picks are under each one.

Fair priceIs the payout worth the risk?
Hits about1 in 3our chance: 29%
vs
Pays like1 in 4break-even: 27%
Needs 27%
0%20%40%

Bet this slip 100 times at $10: about 29 hits pay ≈ $1,057 on $1,000 staked, about +$57.

Leg by leg

Jamal MurrayDEN vs OKC · 8:30 PM 58%likely hit
24.5 PTSGraded 90+
Last 526.2Last 1026.1Season21.0Hits10/20
Jarrett AllenCLE vs PHI · 6:00 PM 50%likely hit
18.5 PTSUnder 80
Last 521.2Last 1019.2Season14.0Hits11/20
No good: hits about 50%, needs 52% to pay its way.
Better pick
14.5 PTS60% cleared it in 13 of his last 20
Safer lines pay less.

Add this slip to your Tracker? It follows every leg live tonight and counts in My record once it closes.

AfterTrack it live
  • Minutes, pace and finish, every 30 seconds
  • A hit alert the second a leg cashes
  • Track your results nightly to adjust strategy

Mitchell + Murray + Gilgeous-Alexander

3-leg parlay · $10.00 · +596 · to win $59.60 · Oct 22
1 of 3 legs hit1 of 3 legs hit2 of 3 legs hit
Donovan MitchellOver 26.5 PTS
Cleveland Cavaliers vs PHI31 / 26.5 pointsHit ✓ Played36 minGameFinal
MIN36PTS31REB4AST63PM4PF2
Jamal MurrayUnder 24.5 PTS
Denver Nuggets vs OKC · Bench131517 / 24.5 pointsroom for 1197On pace Played27 min30 min33 minLeft~12 min~9 min~6 minFinish~21 pts~21 pts~22 ptsClock3rd 4:123rd 0:514th 9:30ScoreDEN 74–78 OKCDEN 80–84 OKCDEN 86–90 OKC
MIN273033PTS131517REB3AST53PM2PF2
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOver 6.5 AST
Oklahoma City Thunder vs DEN · Bench567 / 6.5 assistsneed 2need 1On paceHit ✓ Played26 min29 min32 minLeft~12 min~9 min~6 minFinish~7 ast~7 ast7 astClock3rd 4:123rd 0:514th 9:30ScoreDEN 74–78 OKCDEN 80–84 OKCDEN 86–90 OKC
MIN262932PTS22REB3AST5673PM2PF1
Every nightMy record
  • Every slip counts once its games are over
  • Running profit, night by night
  • Broken down by slip type, odds, stat and side
  • See what’s working and adjust
slips won profitreturn

Legs: 15 of 20 hit (75%) · 7 nights

Running profit

0 +$90.32 Oct 15: −$0.91Oct 16: +$34.58Oct 18: +$32.92Oct 19: +$32.01Oct 20: +$41.53Oct 21: +$56.53Oct 22: +$90.32 Oct 15Oct 22

Slips by type

Straight bet7–464% +$22.92 on $110
2-leg parlay3–0100% +$77.40 on $30
3-leg parlay0–10% −$10.00 on $10

Slips by odds

Favorites (minus odds)7–370% +$32.92 on $100
Even to +1990–10% −$10.00 on $10
+200 to +4993–0100% +$77.40 on $30
+500 or longer0–10% −$10.00 on $10

Legs by stat

Points7–278%
Rebounds3–260%
Assists3–0100%
Threes2–167%

Legs by side

Overs11–569%
Unders4–0100%

Night by night

Oct 223–175% legs 4 of 5 · +$33.79
Oct 211–150% legs 2 of 3 · +$15.00
Oct 201–0100% legs 1 of 1 · +$9.52
Oct 191–150% legs 3 of 4 · −$0.91
Oct 181–150% legs 1 of 2 · −$1.67
Oct 162–0100% legs 3 of 3 · +$35.49
Oct 151–150% legs 1 of 2 · −$0.91

Sample slips: real players, made-up lines and numbers.

Pricing

Try tonight’s board
for $3.95.

One day, every feature, no subscription. If it earns a spot in your routine, stay longer for less per day. Cancel anytime.

Start here

Day pass

$3.9524 hours · one-time

$3.95 a day
  • Tonight’s full board, every prop graded 0–99
  • More analysis breakdowns on every pick
  • Live in-game picks and projections
  • Rate a slip before you bet
  • Tracker, hit alerts and My record
  • Analytics and the nightly heat grid
Try it for $3.95

No subscription. It ends on its own.

Staying longer? The cost per day drops.

Week pass

7 days · one-time. About $1.86 a day. No subscription.

$12.99Get a week pass
$1.86 a day

Monthly Most popular

Renews monthly · cancel anytime. About $1 a day for every tool.

$29.99/ monthStart monthly
$1.00 a day

Yearly Best value

Renews yearly · save 50%. Works out to $15 a month.

$179.99/ yearGo yearly
$0.49 a day

Every plan includes everything in the day pass.

21+. Sweet Spot Props is a sports analytics tool. We don’t take bets, and past results don’t guarantee future results.

FAQ

Questions,
answered.

What is Sweet Spot Props?

A research tool for NBA player props. Every night it grades every prop on the slate 0–99 using signals that history says make a pick more likely to hit, and puts the best picks of the night at the top of the board. It’s an analytics tool. We don’t take bets.

What does the grade mean?

The grade is a 0–99 score built from all of a prop’s signals at once. Higher grades have hit more often: on seasons the model never saw, picks graded 90+ hit 59.1% and picks graded 80–89 hit 56.9%. At standard −110 odds, break-even is 52.4%.

Where do the numbers come from?

We replayed 63,154 real player props from four NBA seasons (2022–26) and checked 54 signals on every one. Then we tested 1,041,528 combinations of those signals. Only 395 held up, and those are what the board leans on.

Do I need a Kalshi account?

The board is built on Kalshi’s lines, so it fits best there. The research is about the player and the line, so you can use it anywhere you bet props. Just check that your line matches ours, because a different line is a different bet.

How do live picks work?

Once a game starts, every live prop is re-graded on every play with the score, the clock, the minutes and the pace. When the live chance reads 67% or better, those picks have hit 80.5% of 7,895 on a season the model never saw.

What do I get with the $3.95 day pass?

Everything, for 24 hours: the full board, More analysis breakdowns, live picks, Rate a slip, the Tracker with hit alerts, and Analytics. It’s a one-time charge with no subscription, and it ends on its own.

Can I cancel a monthly or yearly plan?

Yes. Monthly and yearly plans renew until you cancel, and you can cancel anytime. Day and week passes are one-time and never renew.

Which sports do you cover?

NBA player props, right now. We’re actively researching models for the NFL, college football, college basketball and MLB. When they’re ready, they go live in your plan with no price bump.

Is this a guarantee I’ll win?

No. Nothing here is a lock. The numbers show what happened across thousands of past props, and no single bet is certain. Judge it over the long run, bet only what you can afford to lose, and you must be 21 or older. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Tonight’s board is live

Your next bet,
backed by history.

Every NBA prop graded 0–99. The best picks of the night at the top. See the whole board for a day.

59.1%hit rate, graded 90+
80.5%hit rate, live picks at 67%+
52.4%break-even
Try it for $3.95(24 hour pass - All Features)

21+. No pick is certain. Bet only what you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.